明 天

Are you thinking of becoming a scientist? Do you want to uncover the mysteries of nature, perform experiments or carry out calculations to learn how the world works? Forget it!

Science is fun and exciting. The thrill of discovery is unique. If you are smart, ambitious and hard working you should major in science as an undergraduate. But that is as far as you should take it. After graduation, you will have to deal with the real world. That means that you should not even consider going to graduate school in science. Do something else instead: medical school, law school, computers or engineering, or something else which appeals to you.

Why am I (a tenured professor of physics) trying to discourage you from following a career path which was successful for me? Because times have changed (I received my Ph.D. in 1973, and tenure in 1976). American science no longer offers a reasonable career path. If you go to graduate school in science it is in the expectation of spending your working life doing scientific research, using your ingenuity and curiosity to solve important and interesting problems. You will almost certainly be disappointed, probably when it is too late to choose another career.

American universities train roughly twice as many Ph.D.s as there are jobs for them. When something, or someone, is a glut on the market, the price drops. In the case of Ph.D. scientists, the reduction in price takes the form of many years spent in ``holding pattern'' postdoctoral jobs. Permanent jobs don't pay much less than they used to, but instead of obtaining a real job two years after the Ph.D. (as was typical 25 years ago) most young scientists spend five, ten, or more years as postdocs. They have no prospect of permanent employment and often must obtain a new postdoctoral position and move every two years. For many more details consult the Young Scientists' Network or read the account in the May, 2001 issue of the Washington Monthly.

As examples, consider two of the leading candidates for a recent Assistant Professorship in my department. One was 37, ten years out of graduate school (he didn't get the job). The leading candidate, whom everyone thinks is brilliant, was 35, seven years out of graduate school. Only then was he offered his first permanent job (that's not tenure, just the possibility of it six years later, and a step off the treadmill of Looking for a new job every two years). The latest example is a 39 year old candidate for another Assistant Professorship; he has published 35 papers. In contrast, a doctor typically enters private practice at 29, a lawyer at 25 and makes partner at 31, and a computer scientist with a Ph.D. has a very good job at 27 (computer science and engineering are the few fields in which industrial demand makes it sensible to get a Ph.D.). Anyone with the intelligence, ambition and willingness to work hard to succeed in science can also succeed in any of these other professions.

Typical postdoctoral salaries begin at $27,000 annually in the biological sciences and about $35,000 in the physical sciences (graduate student stipends are less than half these figures). Can you support a family on that income? It suffices for a young couple in a small apartment, though I know of one physicist whose wife left him because she was tired of repeatedly moving with little prospect of settling down. When you are in your thirties you will need more: a house in a good school district and all the other necessities of ordinary middle class life. Science is a profession, not a religious vocation, and does not justify an oath of poverty or celibacy.

Of course, you don't go into science to get rich. So you choose not to go to medical or law school, even though a doctor or lawyer typically earns two to three times as much as a scientist (one lucky enough to have a good senior-level job). I made that choice too. I became a scientist in order to have the freedom to work on problems which interest me. But you probably won't get that freedom. As a postdoc you will work on someone else's ideas, and may be treated as a technician rather than as an independent collaborator. Eventually, you will probably be squeezed out of science entirely. You can get a fine job as a computer programmer, but why not do this at 22, rather than putting up with a decade of misery in the scientific job market first? The longer you spend in science the harder you will find it to leave, and the less attractive you will be to prospective employers in other fields.

Perhaps you are so talented that you can beat the postdoc trap; some university (there are hardly any industrial jobs in the physical sciences) will be so impressed with you that you will be hired into a tenure track position two years out of graduate school. Maybe. But the general cheapening of scientific labor means that even the most talented stay on the postdoctoral treadmill for a very long time; consider the job candidates described above. And many who appear to be very talented, with grades and recommendations to match, later find that the competition of research is more difficult, or at least different, and that they must struggle with the rest.

Suppose you do eventually obtain a permanent job, perhaps a tenured professorship. The struggle for a job is now replaced by a struggle for grant support, and again there is a glut of scientists. Now you spend your time writing proposals rather than doing research. Worse, because your proposals are judged by your competitors you cannot follow your curiosity, but must spend your effort and talents on anticipating and deflecting criticism rather than on solving the important scientific problems. They're not the same thing: you cannot put your past successes in a proposal, because they are finished work, and your new ideas, however original and clever, are still unproven. It is proverbial that original ideas are the kiss of death for a proposal; because they have not yet been proved to work (after all, that is what you are proposing to do) they can be, and will be, rated poorly. Having achieved the promised land, you find that it is not what you wanted after all.

What can be done? The first thing for any young person (which means anyone who does not have a permanent job in science) to do is to pursue another career. This will spare you the misery of disappointed expectations. Young Americans have generally woken up to the bad prospects and absence of a reasonable middle class career path in science and are deserting it. If you haven't yet, then join them. Leave graduate school to people from India and China, for whom the prospects at home are even worse. I have known more people whose lives have been ruined by getting a Ph.D. in physics than by drugs.

If you are in a position of leadership in science then you should try to persuade the funding agencies to train fewer Ph.D.s. The glut of scientists is entirely the consequence of funding policies (almost all graduate education is paid for by federal grants). The funding agencies are bemoaning the scarcity of young people interested in science when they themselves caused this scarcity by destroying science as a career. They could reverse this situation by matching the number trained to the demand, but they refuse to do so, or even to discuss the problem seriously (for many years the NSF propagated a dishonest prediction of a coming shortage of scientists, and most funding agencies still act as
if this were true). The result is that the best young people, who should go into science, sensibly refuse to do so, and the graduate schools are filled with weak American students and with foreigners lured by the American student visa

遥感影像的比例尺和分辨率

     从11.19—2.21—5.30确实是一个漫长的过程，可能是那些部委的大人们太过忙碌吧，我想大多数人都等待的掉了一层皮，最后还是以一个出乎我的意料的结果宣布这件事情已经告一段落。

     从开始就没有认真过，不过经历这样一个过程还算是为人生经历多一个记号吧，开始的动机还是挺好玩的，而中间过程也曲折又出乎意料，得到一个早已预料的到，但又想不到的结果，其中为什么很容易让人产生联想。

     说实话没有想过当公务员，完全因为那时候很颓废，又觉得好玩，报名费还比较少（好像是一个伟人头的样子吧）的缘故，就加入了这支浩浩荡荡大军中（到考试那天就发现确实规模庞大，出乎我的想象）。不过既然报了名，还是强迫自己看了几天书，稍微让自己振作了一点精神，也算是有所收获，等到中午休息时候才发现别人准备的是多么充分，自己完全没有按照套路来，由中偷工减料的罪恶感，草草看了几页书就进入下午的考场，下午的考试充分体现出了准备不充分的后果，又一道题作的根本不搭界，知道这次游戏到此结束。事实也如此，在公布成绩的当日在武汉有老同学说公布结果了，等回来时发现后一门分数确实可怜，这是继武汉失落之后又一次梦想破灭，也不再去想就忙其他的事情去了，高高兴兴回家过年的时候北京陌生电话让我做了一个所有人都会做但是有不会有结果的决定，然后就高高兴兴过年。

     过年后又该回重庆上班了，路过北京时决定还是不做伴读书童，就急匆匆飞回了重庆，给胡老师说起此事时他还是极力主张去一趟，这样就不留遗憾，其实我也是有这样的想法，只不过找人确认一下，这个时候机票贵得让我心疼，基本上是没有折扣了，当时在银行已经是负资产了，一咬牙打道北上见识一下部委的招人方式，哪知我这样就早到了一天（我报的职位根本没有专业考试，我都从来没有关心过），等到21号高速公路上都堵车，差点迟到，被关了几乎一整天，不得和外界有任何来往，太不人道了。中午还吃了据说不错的国土资源部盒饭，说实话我觉得不怎么样，还不如我们中午饭丰盛呢，到了下午3点终于上场了。

     看到考官昏昏欲睡的样子让我觉得他们也不容易，中国的科举制度和历史上相比不见得有什么进步，小组讨论是我第一次见识这种形式，和大学里的毕业生相比已经处于略势，大学里的宣讲会几乎天天都有，这样肉搏场面估计见识也很多了，我的经验值只是0，心里大体已经知道结果了，果然不经意之间中了一次圈套，如果再有下次我就知道该怎么做了，其实当时我的观点还是非常明确，思路也比较清晰，讲的也具有说服力，还是博得某几位考官注意的。原以为会不知道讲些什么，哪知进入状态后还是有蛮多的话讲的，结束后就此话别，过了两天又体检，然后匆匆回来上班。

     现在也到了该总结的时候了，发现还是很多不足，经验确实是个好东西，这是我用惨重的经济代价换来的。加上武汉之行经济损失共计接近5k，陪太子读书两次，武汉可以下结论是完完全全的一个圈套，北京虽然很难说但是结果却让我大跌眼镜，可能是人家的经验丰富，也可能是另有原因，就不再深究了。

     感觉自己在补历史欠账，毕业时候该做的事情现在才做，研究所的好处是可以静下心来做研究，但是找工作信息太过闭塞，今天总结也算是宣告一件事情已经尘埃落定，总结经验，畅想未来，迎接下一个挑战。

        已经考试结束整整一周了，是上个周日五点宣告今年的复习效果画上了休止符，考前那种紧张的情绪这么快就烟消云散，都快回忆不起来那段时间是怎么度过的了。记得有过学习到3点的时候，当时的一个念头是坚持到最后一刻，然后尽情放松，可是这一周没有放松过，每天上班时间忙来忙去，做一些对我来说意义不大的事情，而且感觉比那时候还累一些，一周来都没有休息过来。

        一周时间值了三次班，算是把这个月的伙食费赚回来了，但是心却总是空落落的，不知道下一步又该选择一个什么样的目标，总不能像其他人一样当着退休吧，我才开始工作一年多而已。也许下周公务员的事情会有个结果了，不管以后有没有我的关系了，但是总算给自己一个交待了吧，没有认真付出也不期望太多，能进入面试已经让我感觉不可思议了，当时考场好像蛮多人考试的，难道他们真的那么菜吗，我可是抱着为考证练兵而报名的，遇到这样的对手也让我跌入深深中。

        离开还是留下的问题还在脑边萦绕，或许我就没有想过在这里工作一辈子，但CQ还有什么地方容我想来就来想走就走呢，好像能力没有强到这种地步，那么多路又哪条是最适合我的呢，这种问题好像很难。

        昨天用好几个同学结婚，我应该祝贺他们的，但可恨的值班让我忘掉了，好在已经提前祝福过他们了，我也要抓紧了，不能成天脑袋里胡思乱想了。

      5月12日，是个难以忘记的日期，也将在中国灾难史留下一个印记，一切都是那么突然，而且来得毫无征兆。

       当时正坐在椅子上，感觉椅子在晃动，看看周围没有多少异常，第二次感觉晃动就知道了是地震，让我现在都难以理解的是当时没有任何惊慌，只是随着人群顺着楼梯跑到了楼下，也许是因为上次经历的地震比这次更具有破坏力吧，而过了10年在一个离振中更远一点的地方，但不同的是这次的灾难区都留下过我的足迹，不由让我想起了在汶川，在茂县，在理县的那些人和事。

      03年和04年几次考察，来来回回在汶川住了好几次，姜维宾馆经历的事情更是让我难以忘记，不知宾馆那些人，那个小姑娘是否还安好，我只希望好人一生平安。不觉别离那块地方已经4年了，很难想象当初看起来还蛮整洁的小镇如今已是人间地狱。还有茂县，理县，既有故人还有朋友的父母亲戚在那里，不知当年豪爽的副县长和年轻帅气的羌族县政府主任是否还能组织群众抗震，这些人的印象已经在记忆中有点模糊，但是他们的热情好客与纯朴善良永远不能从记忆中抹去，昨日和胡老师还聊起汶川，大家唏嘘不已，说起蒋晓波父母兄弟都在茂县，不知道是否平安，只能祝福他们，好在听说茂县损失比预期的小，让我们不禁对他们充满希冀。这几日充斥在耳边的映秀，漩口，威镇，紫坪铺，都是耳熟能详的字眼，却在不断刺激我的神经，可是我们又能做多少事情呢，捐款不能替代伤痛和死亡，远处的我们只能为他们默默祈祷。最让我们揪心的是学校的学生，怎么他们是受伤害最重的，国家的教育经费又被那些无良的人和ZF部门吃喝掉了，对于GCD和ZF我已经不想说什么，只能是一次又一次的失望。我们温总理以76的高龄却要在抢险第一线奔波，后方当权者却在推诿和贪婪，不禁要要叩问中国人的良知，其实比鲁迅写的中国人更加可恶，那时的人比我们愚昧，而我们却比他们少一份责任心和良知。

      如今只能沉痛地悼念那些永远离开的人们，同时希望在废墟中的幸存者早日得到营救。或许若干年后又是一番繁华的景象，但是大地震造成的伤害还是难以在我们心中消逝。

     以此文纪念5.12汶川大地震带来的伤害。

      看了别人的空间突然间想起好久没有写过哪怕是一句话了，语言能力极度衰退。近一段时间折腾再折腾，却距离成果总有一步之遥，只因自己还是没有认真对待，用心去做，或者是害怕成功之后艰难的抉择。“时间如白驹过隙”这句话已经半彻半悟了，因为这是有生以来最蹉跎的一年，没有任何收获，只是从有一小点存款变成了有一大笔债的蜕化，说实话我在乎的东西在这里找不到，却要傻傻的在这里坐着等待。

     看着同学又在找工作，发现已经毕业了3年了，原来这么快就到了，也不愿向如果当初...，现在...。第一是没意义，第二是从来没有后悔过，不过挺为现在的就业形势伤心的，什么时候连博士都这样贱卖。好在马上就要要回家过年了，这些事情以后慢慢想吧，思绪很乱，写不下去了...

好像很多人喜欢我上边的那个小动画，我也是从别处拿来的，所以给大家提供这个链接“http://www.motoservices.com/phpbb2/votes/The_lion_sleeps_tonight.wmv”，不用感谢我，要感谢创作的人咯。

    最近虽然是过得很没意思，缺少哪怕是一点点的精彩，但是原来没有敢想的两件事情竟然成了水到渠成。平淡中打球，再认识几个朋友，也就算是生活中找到的一点点乐趣吧。

    等着下一周就该节衣缩食了，原来有产阶级行列竟然都达到是这样的境地，也没有什么可值得夸耀。现在一想到未来的发展方向，下一步该做什么就有些头疼，甚至都想逃避，现在做职业规划或许还不算晚，虽然已经对工作没有了以前的热情和期待，但还没有害怕出去参与竞争。

     最近两周近乎颓废的生活导致本来转好并且已经快有了规律的生活习惯重新打回圆形，发现生活习惯培养原来这么难，可能是一个人太自在没有约束的后果吧，这样下去的后果是可怕的，现在开始怀念在学校的生活了，正如邬说的还是学校读书期间好呀。

      突然有了任务都不想动了，什么可行性报告，信息化建设规划，鬼才知道要写些什么东西，这都是领导来给一个明确的发展思路，才好确定写什么内容，管理混乱还是最终的原因，怪不得以前什么项目都申请不下来，再说都写得些什么东西呀，还是找几个范本认真学习一下，这个东西想写好还是不容易的，周六值班把时间拆的七零八落，本想做的事情都难以实现，下次一定叫他们别把我排在这个时间。

     确实每个人给人看的都是光鲜动人的一面，我想大家内心都被郁闷之火焚烧，还是和外边交流，周围的人实在是太闭塞太自大了。